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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
928 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025



.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

No major changes needed to the ongoing forecast for the overnight
hours. Made some minor tweaks to the hourly temp and dew grids.

Stationary front continues to stretch from the eastern Great
Lakes back through the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This front
will remain well to the west of the CWA overnight, while high
pressure remains situated across the western Atlantic. Temps
overnight should range from 15 to 25 degrees above normal for this
time of year.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Key Messages:

- Near record or record warmth will continue today and tomorrow
across the CWA. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s across all but
the mountains.

- Afternoon showers and few storms possible, but these will likely
be very isolated to mostly NE GA.

Forecast:

This morning`s 12Z sounding from FFC is sitting right on the 90th
percentile for 500mb heights which to the meteorologists in the
crowd will likely say a lot about our current conditions. We have
a large subtropical ridge sitting over the top of the southeast
centered just off the Atlantic coastline of Georgia. This feature
is going to remain mostly stationary, getting pumped a bit by a
stalled upper level low to the west that is getting pinched by a
rossby wave break over the Alaskan panhandle. With a surface high
underneath this ridge to our east, surface winds are from the
south and pumping in moisture and heat from the Gulf across the
area that continues to build. Early morning cloud cover has given
way to a cu field that has continued to rise and scatter and let
the spring sun angle build the surface temps. Temperatures have
risen into the upper 70s and 80s across the CWA. High temps are
going to likely approach some local climate site records, but
whether or not we actually make it to the records has some
uncertainty. The early morning cloud cover delayed the afternoon
heating compared to much of the expected model guidance/blends,
but we are doing our best to catch up now that mixing is underway.
Thinking we may end up just short of current forecast highs,
which would likely keep us under most records, but we still have
another hour or two of heating to go.

Other thing to watch today will be the potential for very
isolated storms. Morning sounding showed a pretty stout capping
inversion located at approximately 700 mb, representative of the
strong ridging overhead. However, surface Ts are managing to
approach levels that may allow a few of the stronger convective
cells in the boundary layer to take off across the CWA. Southerly
winds buffeting into the terrain of NE GA will likely aid this, so
best chances of seeing something (and per radar, best returns are
already in the area) will be across NE GA.

Tonight, temps will dip into the 60s, which is relatively warm for
this time of year. Tomorrow looks like much of the same as today
in terms of temperatures. Upper level ridge remains in place, but
overnight moisture return with nocturnal inversion will allow for
the potential for low level cloud cover again. So, whether or not
we approach record temperatures again tomorrow will be dependent
on morning cloud cover, most likely. Thunderstorm chances will
look much the same, with the best chances across NE GA.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Key Messages:

- Starts hot. Ends cold.

- Some strong to severe weather is possible on Sunday.

Forecast:

Kicking off the long term we`re looking to break high temperature
records. Highs could be pushing 90 degrees in some places on
Saturday and even into Sunday. But the game is set to change on
Sunday as a cold front pushes through sometime Sunday afternoon.
With temps in the upper 80s over mid 60s dewpoints it makes sense
that we`re set up for some convective activity. Timing will likely
make all the difference in how big a threat this next front is. Some
model runs have it pushing through later in the afternoon which will
allow more instability to build. It looks like the main area of
concern will be along the GA/AL border south of I-20. We`ll keep an
eye out on how things shape up and will continue to provide updates
over the next few AFDs.

I can`t believe I`m saying this, but after the front pushes through
we`ll likely see some widespread frost and freezing in the area on
Wednesday and into Thursday as reinforcing cold air is pushed out of
the north. Temperatures are expected to drop below freezing north of
I-85; as a result frost and freeze warnings will likely be needed
pending dewpoint and winds speeds. High temperatures will be in the
60s for most of the workweek and will do their best to slowly push
back into the low 70s by the time next weekend rolls around.

Vaughn

&&
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