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Area Forecast Discussion

AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
652 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 414 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

Key Messages:

- Low temperatures near freezing in the northern mountains tonight
along with some snow flurries or a light dusting of snow.

- Cool and breezy conditions are expected to continue through
Friday.

Early morning skies are crystal clear early this morning. Much
cooler air has blasted into the area on gusty NW winds. Current
temperatures range from near freezing in the extreme NE mountains to
near 50 in the extreme SE. Winds have partially decoupled enough to
lose most of their gustiness, but sustained speeds remain around 5-10
mph at most locations.

An upper low is presently located over Lake Michigan with a broad
trough over the E half of the country. At the surface, yesterday`s
cold front is clearing the FL Peninsula. A secondary cold front is
diving SE across the OH Valley and will clear our area this evening,
bringing a reinforcing shot of cool air and keeping winds up.

High temperatures today will be very cool, ranging from the lower 40s
in the NE mountains to the lower 60s in the extreme SE (5-10 degrees
below normal). Wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph will make it feel even
chillier. Wind speeds are expected to remain mostly below Wind
Advisory criteria.

The upper low is forecast to move SE to E PA by Friday evening.
Quite a bit of vorticity will rotate around this low, with upper
dynamic forcing clipping the NE portion of the area tonight. This
forcing may be able to squeeze a bit of very light precip in the
mountains. The atmosphere is very dry, with PWAT values around .25".
However, a band of slightly elevated moisture will pivot around the
trough tonight (PWATs closer to .4-.5"). As a result, have a brief
period of snow flurries in the forecast for the mountains between
midnight and dawn Friday, with the potential of a very light dusting
of snow at the highest elevations of the extreme NE. There shouldn`t
be enough snow for any travel impacts.

Low temperatures tonight are forecast to drop to the lower to mid
30s across much of the area, with lows near 40 in the extreme SE.
Freezing temperatures are likely in the NE mountains and possible in
few other normally colder spots of NW GA. However, a freeze is not
quite a slam dunk in locations outside of the mountains, and will
defer any Freeze Warning product to the day shift. Additionally,
patchy frost will be possible in some wind-protected spots, but
winds are forecast to stay up enough tonight to minimize the threat
in most locations.

On the back side of the reinforcing cold front, high temperatures on
Friday will be a few degrees cooler than today`s. Winds will be a bit
lighter, but gusts over 20 mph will still be likely in the late
morning and afternoon. /SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 414 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

At a glance:

- Cooler than normal for the first half of the long term

- Increasing temps toward the end of the weekend.

A relatively benign long term forecast continues. At the upper
levels, we`ll start sitting on the backside of a strong low pressure
that will slowly push off the New England coast. As a result, our
cold air is expected bringing daytime highs into the 50s and
overnight lows close to freezing for much of the CWA. This is about
5-10 degrees below what we`d normally expect for this time of year.

The upper level flow flattens out this weekend and we`ll gradually
shift to a more westerly surface level flow. Temps and dewpoints
should begin to climb back into more comfortable conditions with
highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s and overnight lows in the 40s
and 50s. This trend usually indicates the approach of our next system
which is bringing slight chance PoPs by Wednesday of next week.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR through the period. WNW-NW winds will continue. Expect higher
wind speeds and gusts to return by mid to late morning with speeds
similar to Wednesday. Low cloudiness and along with some flurries may
wrap into extreme NE GA late tonight.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

SEC

&&
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